Real Estate Blog – Late October 2025 Insights

Real Estate Blog – Late October 2025 Insights

Hello from sunny North San Diego County! As a real estate professional here in the region, I’m seeing how national trends are filtering down locally — so let’s unpack what’s happening and what it could mean for our local market.

1. Homeownership just dipped

Recent data shows the number of U.S. homeowners fell from about 86.28 million in 2024 to 86.19 million in 2025 — the first drop in nearly a decade.
Key drivers: rising mortgage and borrowing costs, home-price inflation, younger buyers delaying major decisions, and more renters.
Why this matters locally:

• With fewer new homeowners entering the market, we may see increased demand in the rental space — and potential for investors to target rental properties.
• As more people rent longer, neighborhood dynamics shift: more demand for well-kept rentals and multi-family units.
• For sellers, this may reduce competition from first-time buyers; for buyers, it signals an affordability constraint.

2. Mortgage rates are easing — but the wind is still in the sails of inflation & data disruption

According to current reports:

• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate recently dropped to ~6.19%.
• A soft inflation print (CPI ~3% annual) gave hope of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
• However — a looming complication: the 2025 federal government shutdown has impacted key economic data releases (including CPI for October), which means less clarity for policy decisions.
  Local takeaways:
• Lower mortgage rates (or the expectation of them) can ignite buyer interest — good news if you’re listing homes in North San Diego County.
• Still, with affordability tight and inventory restrained, potential buyers may need creative financing or strategic timing.
• Because the data environment is murky, there’s some uncertainty around future rate cuts — so guiding clients with conservative assumptions is wise.

3. Inventory, price growth and local opportunity

National commentary suggests:

• Inventory is increasing modestly, which is helping moderate price growth.
• Many markets are experiencing prices that are flat or barely up when adjusted for inflation.
• Experts expect a slow recovery in sales volumes and modest price appreciation through 2026.
  What this means for North San Diego County:
• If local inventory begins to loosen (more homes entering market), sellers may need to temper expectations for large price jumps — listing strategy and presentation become more critical.
• For buyers: this is a window of opportunity — less frenetic bidding wars, more negotiation room, and better selection than during peak frenzy years.
• For investors: with price growth slower, the emphasis may shift toward rental yield, value-add opportunities, and long-term hold rather than rapid flip-style gains.

4. Strategy recommendations for your business & clients

Since you’re active in the local real estate market, here are a few action-items to consider:

For sellers:

• Highlight affordability and rate reduction potential — show how monthly payments compare under current scenarios.
• Emphasize home condition, staging, and differentiating features — when price growth is more modest, presentation counts.
• Educate sellers that the market may no longer be hyper-heated; timely listing and aggressive marketing may still capture premium but timing matters.

For buyers:

• Bookmark current rate trends and set realistic budgets. If mortgage rate could drop further, gauge when it makes sense to act versus waiting.
• Explore adjustable-rate mortgages, buy-downs, or other structures if rates are still elevated.
• Align with a lender early so you’re ready when a quality listing hits — supply may improve, but the best ones will attract attention.

For investors:

• With price growth moderating, look for properties where cash-flow potential is strong — especially in multi-family or value-add segments.
• Monitor rental market trends in your region: as homeownership drops, rental demand may pick up.
• Stay aware of macro risks: if data disruption or policy surprises arise (e.g., slower rate cuts), it could impact borrowing costs or demand.

5. Looking ahead — what to watch

Keep an eye on these upcoming signals which could shift the local market:

• The next CPI and inflation readings once data disruptions settle.
• Mortgage rate movement — if rates drop meaningfully, buyer demand could accelerate.
• Changes in inventory levels locally — new listings, days-on-market, price reductions.
• Rental vacancy and rent-growth trends — especially given the homeownership dip.
• Local migration patterns: North San Diego County continues to attract people from higher-cost California markets; affordability changes upstream could shift this.

Bottom line:
We’re in a phase of moderation and measured opportunity. The hyper-growth era may have passed (for now), replaced by a “steady growth, smarter strategy” environment. Buyers, sellers and investors can all find wins — but the rules of competition have shifted.

Steve Cardinalli
Real Estate Professional, 01323509
(760) 814-0248
Steve@Cardinalli.com
www.Cardinalli.com
Century 21 Affiliated Fine Homes & Estates
Village Faire in Carlsbad Village
300 Carlsbad Village Dr, 223
Carlsbad, CA 92008

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